Every month I pull the market numbers for Oʻahu. Most months the story is boring — prices nudge up, inventory shifts a little, nothing dramatic. March was different. Not because anything exploded, but because the single-family and condo markets are now telling two completely different stories, and if you're thinking about buying or selling this year, you need to know which one applies to you.
The Numbers, Quickly
In March 2026, 260 single-family homes sold on Oʻahu. That's up 26% from the same month last year. Condos clocked 351 sales, down about 5% year over year. Median price for a house landed at $1,199,500. Median condo came in at $510,000. Both up slightly from a year ago — nothing wild.
On the surface it sounds like a healthy market. But averages hide the real story.
Where the Split Shows Up
The real divide isn't in sales or prices — it's in inventory. Inventory is just how many homes are sitting on the market waiting for a buyer. Agents measure it in "months of supply" — basically, how long it would take to sell everything currently listed if no new homes came on.
Under 4 months of supply is a seller's market. Six months is roughly balanced. Above that, buyers start calling the shots.
Here's where Oʻahu sits right now:
Single-family inventory on Oʻahu dropped to 691 active listings — down 10.6% from last year. Only 2.8 months of supply. Houses are tight.
Condos? 2,294 active listings. Almost flat from a year ago. 6.3 months of supply. There's real selection out there.
What Changed With Mortgage Rates
Rates matter more than almost anything else when it comes to affordability in Hawaiʻi, because our prices are so high that even small rate moves translate into real money.
As of mid-April, the 30-year fixed sits around 6.30%. A year ago we were at 6.83%. That half-point drop doesn't sound like much until you do the math.
That's a $4,200-a-year difference on a million-dollar loan. It's part of why single-family sales jumped so hard in March. Buyers who stepped back in
Houses are tight and competitive. Condos have selection and room to negotiate. Knowing which side you're on changes how you should play it.
If You're Buying
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Looking for a house? You're back in competition mode. Inventory is limited, and good homes are moving in about 3 weeks. Be pre-approved, know your number, and don't expect to lowball.
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Looking at condos? You have leverage for the first time in a while. More than 2,300 active listings. Take your time, compare, ask for credits, negotiate hard on the ones that have been sitting.
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Either one: Rates are about half a point lower than a year ago. If you were priced out in 2025, it's worth pulling the numbers again before you assume nothing's changed.
If You're Selling
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Selling a house? The market's on your side, but only if you price it right. Sellers got 98.6% of original list on average and about 1 in 4 houses sold above asking. Overpriced homes still sit. Priced right, they go fast.
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Selling a condo? You're swimming in a bigger pool. 43 days on market is your realistic timeline. Pricing, staging, and photography matter more than ever. Don't price off of what Zillow said last summer — price off of what's actually selling in your building right now.
The Take
Oʻahu isn't one market — it's two. That's been true for a while, but March really made it obvious. Houses keep getting tighter. Condos keep giving buyers more room. Rates are moving in buyers' favor, and spring is the window when the most serious people are out looking.
Whether it's time for you to move depends less on what the headlines say and more on which side of this split you're on, and what your own numbers look like. That part doesn't show up in the monthly report.
If you want to talk through your specific situation — whether it makes sense to buy, sell, sit tight, or just run the math — reply to this email or shoot me a text. No pitch. Just a real conversation.
