A Tale of Two Markets: Why O‘ahu’s New Year Stats Are a Win for Both Sides
Happy New Year, O‘ahu! As we shake off the last of the holiday tinsel and settle into 2026, the first batch of housing data is officially in. If you’ve been scrolling through Zillow between trips to the beach, you might have noticed the vibe is a little different this year. While the mainland is still dealing with its own set of "if/then" scenarios, our local market is showing a unique brand of island stability.
Whether you’re looking to finally grab those keys in ‘Ewa Beach or thinking about listing your place in Kaimukī, January’s numbers have a little something for everyone. From a surprise surge in affordable condo listings to a single-family market that’s holding its ground like a centuries-old banyan tree, here is what’s actually happening on the ground.
The Single-Family Shuffle: Low Supply, High Competition
If you were hoping for a massive "crash" in house prices to kick off 2026, the data has some other news for you. Single-family home sales remained remarkably stable, dipping just 1.0% compared to last year with 194 sales. The big takeaway? The median sales price crept up 0.2% to stay firmly in that million-dollar neighborhood we’ve come to know (and sometimes complain about).
But here’s where it gets interesting for sellers: competition is actually heating up. About 31% of single-family homes sold for more than the original asking price this January. Compare that to just 23% last year, and you’ll see that buyers are not just looking—they’re ready to fight for the right spot. Most of the action is happening in the $800,000 to $1.4 million range, where nearly 60% of all sales took place.
For buyers, the challenge remains inventory. Active listings for single-family homes are down 8.2% from this time last year. With only 674 homes on the market across the entire island, it’s a "move fast or miss out" situation. Homes are moving at a median of 27 days—barely enough time to get your pre-approval letter and a plate lunch before the "Under Contract" sign goes up.
Condos: The Buyer’s Playground
If the single-family market feels a bit tight, the condo market is where the breathing room is. We are seeing a real shift here that favors the buyer. Condo inventory is up 5.8% year-over-year, giving you over 2,210 options to choose from.
Here’s why condo buyers should be smiling:
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More Time to Decide: The median days on market for condos jumped to 47 days, up from 39 a year ago. You actually have time to do a second walkthrough without feeling like someone is breathing down your neck.
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Negotiating Power: Most condo sales in January closed below the original asking price. Only 7% went for over-asking.
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Price Dips: The median price for a condo dipped 1.9% to $529,000.
Especially in the entry-level price points—think $300,000 to $400,000—we saw a nearly 17% jump in new listings. If you’ve been waiting for a chance to stop renting and start owning, this is the most "buyer-friendly" the condo market has looked in a long time.
The "Under the Hood" Metrics: Pending Sales are Up
While the "closed" sales numbers tell us where we’ve been, the "pending" sales tell us where we’re going. And the direction is up.
Pending sales for single-family homes rose a healthy 14.4%, and condos saw a 5.0% boost. This suggests that the "wait and see" attitude many had throughout late 2025 is starting to thaw. With mortgage rates showing more stability—and even some strategic dips—local families are clearly feeling more confident about making a move.
We’re also seeing a "lock-in" effect start to fade. More homeowners are realizing that waiting for 3% rates to return is like waiting for the H-1 to be empty on a Monday morning—it's just not happening. People are moving because of "life": new jobs, growing families, or just needing a change of scenery from Town to Country.
Island Realities: What This Means for You
So, what’s the move?
For Sellers: If you own a single-family home, you are still the captain of the ship. Inventory is low, and nearly a third of your neighbors are getting over-asking price. However, don't get greedy. Buyers are savvy and sensitive to monthly payments. If you price it right and it’s move-in ready, you’re in a great position.
For Buyers: Focus on the condo market if you want selection and a deal. With over 1,000 active listings priced at $500,000 and below, the "starter home" isn't extinct—it just has a lanai and an HOA fee. Take advantage of the longer days on market to negotiate for repairs or closing cost credits.
As we head deeper into the first quarter of 2026, the O‘ahu market is proving once again that it doesn't just follow national trends. We have our own rhythm here—shaped by limited land, a high demand for the island lifestyle, and a community that knows the value of owning a piece of the rock.
-Daniel Ulu
