As we shake off the last of the holiday season and settle into 2026, O‘ahu’s real estate market is showing signs of a busy spring ahead. While January is often a quieter month for closed sales, the underlying activity—specifically the number of people signing new contracts—tells us that local families are ready to make their mov
Whether you’re looking for a quiet spot in ‘Aiea or a high-rise in Kaka‘ako, the start of the year has delivered a distinct "split" in market dynamics between single-family homes and condominium
Competition Returns for Single-Family Homes
For those hunting for a single-family home, the "January blues" were nowhere to be found. Though the number of closed sales remained stable at 194 (just a 1% dip from last year), the level of competition shifted up a gear. Approximately 31% of sales closed above the original asking price, a notable jump from the 23% we saw just twelve months ago.
The median sales price for a single-family home held steady at $1,122,500, showing a modest 0.2% increase year-over-year. However, the real story is in the "Pending Sales," which represent homes that went under contract during the month. These surged by 14.4%, indicating that buyers are out in force and snapping up the limited inventory available.
More Options in the Condo Market
If you’ve been feeling squeezed out of the market, the condo sector might offer the relief you’re looking for. Condominium active inventory rose by 5.8% to 2,210 listings at the end of January. With more choices on the market, the pace has slowed slightly; the median days on market for a condo is now 47 days, compared to 39 days this time last year.
The median price for a condo saw a slight dip of 1.9%, landing at $529,000. While single-family homes are seeing bidding wars, most condo sales in January actually closed below the original asking price. For first-time buyers or those looking to downsize, this extra inventory and room for negotiation are welcome changes.
Neighborhood Highlights and Price Points
Looking closer at the numbers, certain segments of our island market are moving faster than others:
The "Sweet Spot": Nearly 60% of single-family homes sold in January were priced between $800,000 and $1,399,999. This remains the most competitive bracket on the island.
Budget-Friendly Finds: Sellers brought more condos to market in the $300,000 to $399,999 range, which saw a 16.8% increase in new listings
The High End: While the volume of sales at the $2 million+ mark was lower than last January, inventory in this luxury segment is actually growing, giving high-end buyers more to choose from.
Island Realities: Space and Supply
The "Island Reality" remains the same: we have a finite amount of space and a high demand for housing. The decline in active single-family home inventory (down 8.2% year-over-year) continues to put pressure on prices and fuels that competitive bidding we’re seeing.
However, the uptick in new listings for homes—rising 2.1% this month—is a small but positive sign that more owners are feeling comfortable putting their properties on the market.
Final Thoughts
The 2026 market is starting with a lot of energy. Buyers are clearly motivated, especially in the single-family market where they are willing to pay a premium to secure a home. On the flip side, the condo market is providing a much-needed "safety valve" with more inventory and more stable pricing.
If you’re planning to buy this year, be prepared for competition in the suburbs, but don’t be afraid to explore the growing opportunities in the condo market where the inventory is currently in your favor.
